The accelerating energy transition presents both opportunity and challenge. As renewable generation continues to grow and electrification expands across sectors, electricity transmission grids are under increasing pressure. Yet, a significant portion of the grid's capacity remains untapped—not due to lack of infrastructure, but because of outdated assumptions. That’s where PropheSea steps in.
Together with the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), Elia, and GeoSphere Austria, PropheSea is co-developing a next-generation pilot service that brings high-resolution, on-demand weather forecasting into the operational core of grid management. The project, part of the EU’s Destination Earth initiative, is set to change the way we calculate how much power can safely flow through high-voltage transmission lines.
Electricity transmission operators have traditionally relied on Static Line Rating (SLR)—a method based on fixed assumptions about environmental conditions, such as average air temperature and wind. These ratings err on the side of caution, often underestimating the real-time capacity of power lines. In a system facing growing peaks in demand and variable renewable generation, this conservatism becomes a bottleneck.
Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) provides a smarter alternative. By adjusting line capacity based on actual weather conditions, DLR allows operators to safely push more power through existing lines—without new physical infrastructure. However, the key ingredient for DLR success is trustworthy, high-resolution weather forecasts, particularly for variables like wind speed, temperature, and solar radiation at the exact heights where power lines operate (typically 40–60 meters above ground).
This is where PropheSea and its partners bring innovation. The project builds on ECMWF’s cutting-edge Digital Twin Extremes framework, part of the larger Destination Earth effort to simulate the Earth system at unprecedented scale and detail.
By using a smart triggering mechanism, the pilot service activates high-resolution weather model runs when specific thresholds—relevant to grid safety and capacity—are met. This targeted forecasting approach focuses computing power where and when it matters most.
Through this mechanism, operators will receive dynamic updates about:
These forecasts enable grid operators to anticipate limitations or opportunities 24–48 hours ahead, enabling better planning and reduced reliance on worst-case scenarios.
Victor le Maire, operational planning manager at Elia
PropheSea’s contribution to the project centers on turning this sophisticated forecasting engine into a practical decision-support tool. We are leading the development of the user interface and data integration layer, ensuring that grid operators like Elia can interact seamlessly with the service—whether through a dashboard or API. The interface translates complex meteorological and energy system data into actionable insights.
By dynamically updating line ratings in response to evolving weather, the pilot service can unlock 10–25% additional transmission capacity on existing infrastructure. This helps defer costly upgrades, reduce curtailment of renewable energy, and create a more responsive grid system—especially important during peak periods or low renewable output events.
Importantly, this solution is software-based—reducing dependency on physical sensors and enabling easier scaling across networks.
Are you a grid operator, energy stakeholder, or researcher interested in the future of Dynamic Line Rating or high-resolution weather forecasting for the energy sector? We’re actively engaging with stakeholders to refine and test this pilot service.
Contact us if you'd like to learn more, explore collaboration opportunities, or join the early user group providing feedback on this innovative solution. We’d be happy to hear from you.
